State Donald Trump Won Twice Now a ‘Toss-Up’: New Election Forecast

A new election forecast shifted North Carolina, a state won by former President Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020, to a “toss-up” in the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Harris and Trump are locked in a tight race. Recent polls show Harris winning over voters after becoming the Democratic presidential nominee following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal in July. Harris’ candidacy renewed enthusiasm among the Democratic base while generating record-breaking fundraising, allowing her to build back momentum following months of poor polls for Biden.
Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Tuesday reclassified North Carolina as a “toss-up” as Harris continues to improve her polling, both nationally and among crucial swing states.
North Carolina last voted for Democrats on the presidential level in 2008, when it backed Barack Obama over John McCain. Since then, Republican presidential candidates have narrowly won the Tar Heel State.
But Democrats are increasingly optimistic about the state, hoping that Harris can increase turnout among Black voters while winning over voters in suburban areas that have shifted away from Republicans in the past few years.
The forecaster previously viewed the state as “Leans Republican” following promising polls for Harris.
“The polling bolsters the case for North Carolina to be a Toss-up, given that the race there is basically a tie right now, and its polling is broadly in line with the other 7 states (although there is, of course, variation). The familiar 2000-2020 electoral pattern of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina being redder than Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is also present in the polls,” Sabato’s Crystal Ball editor Kyle Kondik wrote in the update on Tuesday.
Kondik noted that Harris’ polling in North Carolina is “modestly better” than her polls in Georgia, a swing state won by Biden in 2020. Still, he wrote that he believes Georgia is still likely to vote to the left of North Carolina, pointing to its larger share of Black voters and Atlanta having more sway over Georgia than Charlotte and Raleigh in North Carolina.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
In 2020, North Carolina backed Trump by 1.3 percentage points (49.9 percent to 48.6 percent). In 2016, it backed Trump over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 3.6 percentage points (49.8 percent to 46.2 percent).
Two recent polls showed North Carolina as being competitive.
A Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll, conducted among 601 likely voters from August 12 to August 15, found Trump with a 3-point lead over Harris (47 percent to 44 percent).
Meanwhile, a recent poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed Harris with a lead.
In a two-way race, Harris led Trump by two points among likely voters (49 percent to 47 percent). She maintained that 2-point lead over Trump when other candidates were included (46 percent to 44 percent).
The poll surveyed 655 likely voters from August 9 to August 14 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball also classifies Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as toss-ups.
Meanwhile, the forecaster views Florida, Texas and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District as “Likely Republican” and Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Virginia and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as “Likely Democratic.”